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April 12, 2018

SMM Evening Comments (Apr 11)

SHANGHAI, Apr 11 (SMM) – Most base metals futures gained on Wednesday April 11 except for SHFE tin. Nickel rose over 1%, while copper, aluminium, lead, and zinc inched up.

Ferrous metals went down across the board as coke led the loss with a 2.5% drop. Coking coal dipped nearly 1.7%, hot-rolled coil slid over 1%, while iron ore and rebar were down almost 1%.

Copper: Dragged by the underperformance of China’s consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI), SHFE copper went down in the morning. As it then closed higher at 50,950 yuan/mt, we expect the 1805 contract to test the 51,000 yuan/mt level tonight.

Aluminium: SHFE aluminium prices fell in the morning as investors squared their long positions and added more short bets. However, upward room remains following strong performance of LME aluminium resulted from the US sanctions on Rusal. We see pressure at the 14,500 yuan/mt level.

Nickel: SHFE nickel touched a low of 100,950 yuan/mt today but met support at the 10-day moving average. We expect the contract to be firm during the night trading session due to weaker dollar and the support of several moving averages. The US MBA mortgage applications, CPI and weekly EIA crude oil inventory data may give some guidance to the market.

Zinc: A lack of market direction saw some investors cutting their short positions on SHFE zinc today. We expect the contract trade between the five- and 10-day moving averages later tonight in the face of flat physical demand.

Lead: SHFE lead inched up 0.14% to close at 18,485 yuan/mt. But with the Sino-US trade war easing, SHFE lead is returning to fundamentals. We see lead extend the downward trend tonight.

Tin: SHFE tin is expected to trade with support from the 10-day moving average but pressure remains.

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