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October 21, 2020

SMM Morning Comments (Oct 21): Shanghai base metals rose for the most part on dollar weakness

SHANGHAI, Oct 21 (SMM) — Nonferrous metals on the SHFE mostly advanced on Wednesday morning, holding onto overnight gains, while their counterparts on the LME also rose for the most part.


Shanghai base metals, except for aluminium, closed higher in overnight trading. Zinc jumped 2.12% to lead the gains, copper rose 1.25%, lead added 0.35%, nickel climbed 1.92% and tin edged up 0.09%, while aluminium lagged behind with a 0.54% loss.

The LME complex performed similarly. Copper rose 2.03%, zinc strengthened 2.33%, lead climbed 1.28%, nickel surged 2.56% and tin advanced 0.27%, while aluminium fell 0.33%.


Copper: Three-month LME copper rose 2.03% to settle at $6,905.5/mt on Tuesday, after hitting its highest since July 2018 at $6,937.5/mt earlier in the session, and is likely to trade between $6,830-6,910/mt today.

The most-active SHFE 2011 copper contract advanced 1.25% to settle at 52,030 yuan/mt in overnight trading. It is expected to move between 51,600-52,100 yuan/mt today, while spot premiums will be seen lower at 70-110 yuan/mt.

Overnight, the US dollar index moved lower, recording a new low in nearly one month, and this, coupled with expectations of a US COVID-19 aid package before the Nov. presidential election, boosted copper futures.


Aluminium: Three-month LME aluminium weakened 0.33% to end at $1,839.5/mt on Tuesday, and is likely to fluctuate between $1,820-1,860/mt today.

The most-liquid SHFE 2011 aluminium contract slid 0.54% to close at 14,690 yuan/mt in overnight trading, and is expected to move between 14,500-14,900 yuan/mt today.


Zinc: Three-month LME zinc trended higher to a one-month high at $2,545/mt on Tuesday, before paring some gains to close 2.33% higher at $2,543/mt. Zinc stocks across LME-listed warehouses rose 50 mt to 220,325 mt. Softer US dollar and optimism over the US COVID-19 aid package boosted zinc prices. LME zinc is likely to trade between $2,510-2,560/mt today.

The most-traded SHFE 2011 zinc contract jumped 2.12% to settle at 19,750 yuan/mt in overnight trading, after hitting a one-month high at 19,795 yuan/mt earlier in the session. Uncertainties over zinc concentrate supply amid rising COVID-19 cases globally and the upcoming winter storage underpinned zinc prices, but profit-driven stepped-up production of refined zinc capped gains. The November contract is expected to move between 19,300-19,800 yuan/mt today, while spot premiums for domestic 0# Shuangyan will be seen stable at 170-190 yuan/mt.


Nickel: The most-liquid SHFE 2012 nickel contract cruised higher in overnight trading, ending 1.92% firmer at 121,870 yuan/mt. Whether the contract could steady above 120,000 yuan/mt today will be monitored.


Lead: Three-month LME lead fell to an intraday low at $1,750/mt in the morning of Asian trading hours, but later climbed to an intraday high at $1,779.5/mt before giving up some gains to end 1.28% higher at $1,779/mt on Tuesday.

The most-active SHFE 2011 lead contract added 0.35% to settle at 14,355 yuan/mt in overnight trading. Secondary lead production costs will continue to provide support to lead prices.


Tin: Three-month LME tin climbed 0.27% to close at $18,620/mt on Tuesday, after hitting its highest in more than one year at $18,785/mt earlier in the session. LME tin will continue to test the support from the $18,500/mt in the short term.

The most-liquid SHFE 2012 tin contract edged up 0.09% to end at 147,500 yuan/mt in overnight trading, and is expected to move between 146,500-148,500 yuan/mt today.

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